Lynch+0.74
这是一只藏在市场上最大的公司里面的快速成长股——收入增速实际上从 15% 加速到了 18%,每股收益从 $13.71 到 $18.01,增幅超过 30%(如果把净利率跳到 47% 的那个古怪的 Q2 剔除掉,就算二十几个百分点吧,那一季闻起来像是有一次性项目)。28 倍市盈率对上这样的增长,PEG 大约在 0.9 到 1.1,意思是你差不多花一块钱买一块钱的增长——不算白送,但也不是在为一个故事买单。资产负债表是变好了,不是变差了:负债权益比从 0.80 降到 0.71,净资产收益率稳在 34%,每股账面价值以 21% 复合增长,营业利润率 47%,毛利率只掉了一个点。唯一让我心里犯嘀咕的是,每股自由现金流从 $9.64 滑到 $9.02,而每股收益却在往上爬——他们把报表利润的一半又埋回地里去了,所以万一这些投入不再换来 18% 的收入增长,这个倍数就撑不住了。
原文
This is a fast grower hiding inside the biggest company in the market — revenue growth actually accelerated from 15% to 18%, and EPS went from $13.71 to $18.01, better than 30% (call it mid-20s if you back out the odd Q2 where net margin jumped to 47%, which smells like a one-time item). At a 28 P/E against that growth, the PEG is around 0.9 to 1.1, which means you're paying roughly a dollar for a dollar of growth — not a giveaway, but not paying for a story either. The balance sheet got better, not worse: debt/equity down from 0.80 to 0.71, ROE steady at 34%, book value per share compounding 21%, and operating margin at 47% with gross margin off only a point. The one thing that nags me is free cash flow per share slipping from $9.64 to $9.02 while EPS climbed — they're plowing half of reported earnings back into the ground, so if that spending stops producing 18% revenue growth, the multiple won't hold.
Munger+0.72
所示每一个期间都是百分之三十四的净资产收益率,百分之四十的净利率,每股账面价值以百分之二十一复合增长,杠杆从 0.82 降到 0.71,同时收入增速从百分之十二加速到百分之十八——这种生意你是没法刻意造出来的,而且它赚到这些回报既没靠英雄主义的假设,也没靠借来的钱。28 倍的市盈率对百分之三十一的每股收益增长,这个价格是公道的;它并不是这类企业通常会享有的那种狂热价格。唯一可能让我显得像个傻瓜的地方是:每股自由现金流是倒退的,从 9.64 到 9.02,而盈利却跃升了百分之三十一,这意味着全部增量甚至更多都作为资本开支埋进了地里——按这个口径算,你付的是五十倍以上,而一座轻资产的收费站正在悄悄变成一座重资产的收费站。我认下这份优质和公道的倍数,也承认那笔资本开支账单就是反驳我的全部理由。
原文
Thirty-four percent returns on equity in every single period shown, forty percent net margins, book value per share compounding at twenty-one percent, and leverage falling from 0.82 to 0.71 while revenue growth accelerates from twelve to eighteen percent — this is the kind of business you cannot construct on purpose, and it is not earning those returns by heroic assumptions or borrowed money. At 28 times earnings against thirty-one percent EPS growth, the price is fair; it is not the mania price a business like this usually commands. The one thing that would make me look like a fool: free cash flow per share went backwards, 9.64 to 9.02, while earnings leapt thirty-one percent, which means the entire increment and then some went into the ground as capital spending — on that measure you are paying north of fifty times, and an asset-light toll booth is quietly becoming a capital-intensive one. I own the quality and the fair multiple and I accept that the capex bill is the whole argument against me.
Buffett+0.00
这是一门了不起的生意,而且正好落在我已经弄懂的能力圈范围之内:年复一年 34% 的净资产收益率,一块钱里 68 分的毛利率、47 分的营业利润率,而且在如此庞大的基数上收入仍以 18% 复合增长——这是一座收费桥,不是大路货。管理层让账面价值每年复合增长 21%,并把负债权益比从 0.80 削到 0.71,同时每股收益从 $13.71 跳到 $18.01,所以我对这份托管尽责没有任何意见。我犹豫的地方在于,收银机已经跟不上利润表了——每股自由现金流实际上从 $9.64 滑落到 $9.02,而盈利却涨了 31%,意味着报表利润里勉强只有一半变成了股东盈余,而流动比率也从 1.40 松到了 1.23;以 28 倍盈利、五十多倍自由现金流计,你付出的现金收益率大约 1.8%,并且是在赌那些倾注进去的资本能挣回自己的饭钱。这家公司我乐意持有十年,遇上市场糟糕的日子我会开着卡车来装,但按今天的价格,我宁愿坐着不动,也不愿为完美付钱。
原文
This is a marvelous business and it sits squarely in the part of my circle I've come to understand: 34% returns on equity year after year, 68-cent gross margins, 47-cent operating margins, and revenue still compounding at 18% off an enormous base — that is a toll bridge, not a commodity. Management has compounded book value at 21% a year and trimmed debt-to-equity from 0.80 to 0.71 while earnings per share jumped from $13.71 to $18.01, so I've no quarrel with the stewardship. My hesitation is that the cash register has stopped keeping pace with the income statement — free cash flow per share actually slipped from $9.64 to $9.02 while earnings rose 31%, meaning barely half of reported profit is showing up as owner earnings, and the current ratio has eased from 1.40 to 1.23; at 28 times earnings and better than 50 times free cash flow, you are paying roughly a 1.8% cash yield and betting the capital being poured in earns its keep. I'd own this company happily for ten years and would back up the truck on a bad day in the market, but at today's price I'm content to sit on my hands rather than pay for perfection.
Druckenmiller+0.00
收入端的拐点已经发生过了,现在是平台期,不是加速期——收入增速从 FY25 年中的 12-13% 走到 17-18%,并且已经在 18% 上趴了连续四个季度。当下真正在拐的是不该拐的那条线:营业利润率在 FY26 的每一个季度都往下走(49、47、46、45),毛利率掉了 200bps,而每股自由现金流从 9.64 倒退到 9.02,尽管每股收益打出了 +31%——这个缺口就是 AI 资本开支的账单,它先出现在现金里,之后才出现在利润表上,而 Q2 那个 47% 的净利率看着像个一次性项目,把全年数字修饰漂亮了。18% 的增长、40% 的净利率、负债权益比从 0.80 降到 0.71,在 28 倍上,价格不是问题,这里也没有杠杆事故,所以我不做空。但我不会对这样一门生意挥棒:收入曲线已经不再变陡,而利润率和现金转化的曲线却开始往下弯——不对称性不在这儿,正确的仓位是零,直到利润率重新掉头向上,或者倍数自己走到我面前来。
原文
The top-line inflection already happened and it's now a plateau, not an acceleration — revenue went from 12-13% in the middle of FY25 to 17-18%, and it has sat at 18% for four straight quarters. What's actually inflecting right now is the wrong line: operating margin has walked down every single quarter of FY26 (49, 47, 46, 45) and gross margin is off 200bps, while FCF per share went backwards to 9.02 from 9.64 even as EPS printed +31% — that gap is the AI capex bill showing up in cash before it shows up in the P&L, and Q2's 47% net margin looks like a one-timer flattering the annual number. At 28x on 18% growth with a 40% net margin and D/E down to 0.71 from 0.80, the price isn't the problem and there's no leverage accident here, so I'm not short. But I don't swing at a business whose revenue curve has stopped steepening while its margin and cash conversion curves have started bending down — the asymmetry isn't there, and the correct size is zero until either the margin rolls back up or the multiple comes to me.
Graham-0.78
这无疑是一家优秀的企业——34% 的净资产收益率、40% 的净利率,每股收益从 $13.71 升至 $18.01,所示记录中没有一年亏损——但防御型投资者买的是企业,不是名声,而价格在这里就是全部问题所在。以 28.16 倍的市盈率、约 8.5 倍于每股 $59.58 的账面价值(股价接近 $507,对应 $3,753.6B 的市值),两个倍数之乘积超出我 22.5 的上限十倍有余,盈利收益率仅 3.5%,毫无安全边际可言。再者,资产负债表只能算尚可,谈不上稳健:流动比率 1.23,低于我的最低标准;负债为股东权益的 0.71 倍,是实实在在的杠杆,尽管我注意到它已从 0.80 改善。我被要求为未来二十年假想的繁荣预先付款;质地已被证明,价格则是投机,而如此程度的高估本身就是那个不利的事实——我还要补充一句,两年的申报文件是极其单薄的记录,根本不足以据此判断稳定性。
原文
This is unquestionably a fine enterprise — a 34% return on equity, 40% net margins, and earnings that have risen from $13.71 to $18.01 per share without a single loss in the record shown — but the defensive investor buys businesses, not reputations, and the price here is the whole of the matter. At 28.16 times earnings and roughly 8.5 times a book value of $59.58 per share (a price near $507 against $3,753.6B of market capitalization), the product of the two multiples exceeds my limit of 22.5 by more than tenfold, leaving an earnings yield of 3.5% and no margin of safety whatsoever. The balance sheet, moreover, is merely adequate rather than strong: a current ratio of 1.23 sits below my minimum, and debt at 0.71 times equity is real leverage, though I note it has improved from 0.80. I am asked to pay for two decades of assumed prosperity in advance; the quality is demonstrated, the price is speculation, and overvaluation of this magnitude is itself the unfavorable fact — I would add that two years of filings is a thin record on which to judge stability at all.